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Saver, what’s your take on sense of direction? My experience to date tells me that if I know the direction with high probability I could play it without anything else, you get what I’m saying?
Yes, the sense of direction I think is the MOST important aspect of being able to trade successfully no matter what method we trade. Sometimes people say, being able to read the trend. The past week I have been testing this “sense of direction” trading where I read the bull/bear power and trade based purely on that very successfully. I talk about this method in the following thread of mine http://www.penguintraders.com/forums/topic/all-about-trend-trading/
Look at the number of pips I raked in this week after I started applying just pure sense of direction based trading without any indicators other than candlesticks. 7.38% gain in one week (since Jan 14th low). That was when I decided to forget about all indicators and apply sound classical trading principles.
Echoing @Rahat Lukum, concerning “directionless bias”, don’t PTZs have a directional bias? The universal number seems to be about 82-87%. That is, if I am looking at a PTZ on eurusd 1hr h=24(that is located at the top), there is about an 80%+ probability that price will break the high in the next 24 hours. Is this a directional bias?
The short answer is, no, they do not have a sense of direction. It’s very dangerous to think that they do. At any moment, there are MANY PTZs on a chart for various H settings. They are above and below the current price. TZ’s are nothing but fractals, do fractals have a sense of direction? Well they can, but generally they don’t. That’s what trading PTZ is like. Take a look at the following example..
Pivots aren’t any different. Pivots/TZs/Murry’s math/Supply-Demand Lines/Trend lines, none of these can tell us the direction. The direction is decided by the trader, not indicators. For any random entry trigger, I am certain that the outcome will be 50%. I have spent A LOT of time, over 5000hrs the past 4yrs developing and testing everything I could imagine (and I never run out of ideas) and this is my conclusion. And now, having this sense of direction is proving to be the most successful way to trade
I wish I just done this the past 4yrs.. haha
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