This is interesting.. A close friend of mine’s dad actually has been trading now for over 2+yrs successfully and he retired in the beginning of the year and trading full-time now (he is extremely disciplined). I saw his strategy and its very similar to what you outlined actually. He uses slope lines in multiple time-frames and he also LOVES OBV.…[Read more]

Oh, almost forgot! Here is my node.js script if anyone is interested in playing around 

You need to have Node.js installed in your system.
Run npm install to install the needed packages.
Then run the command node simple_probability.js in the directory.
I added some comments to the top. First you will need a data export from MT4 or EURUSD…[Read more]

Oh, almost forgot! Here is my node.js script if anyone is interested in playing around 

You need to have Node.js installed in your system.
Run npm install to install the needed packages.
Then run the command node simple_probability.js in the directory.
I added some comments to the top. First you will need a data export from MT4 or EURUSD…[Read more]

Hi all!

I started playing around with probabilities once again  I’m wondering if someone could verify if my probability calculations are correct.

This is what I want to find out:

What is the probability of price going up 40 pips given that it has already gone up 20 pips first before going down 20 pips.

I’m observing EURUSD for this…[Read more]

Test

Thank you so much all!    It was hectic the past few months. Things are finally cooling down like the weather over here 

I miss spending my reading through the posts and giving something back and I will be visiting more often now

@Anti
I’m continuing my discussion here from last December

Nature of Markets – Randomness & Probability

Hi all!

A lot has happened in my absence from this community. There were some family things that happened but things has finally returned to “normal” and I’m finding more time to continue my research where I left off. I hope to share my findings with you here and help you all along the way.

Continuing from where I left…[Read more]

Hi all!

A lot has happened in my absence from this community. There were some family things that happened but things has finally returned to “normal” and I’m finding more time to continue my research where I left off. I hope to share my findings with you here and help you all along the way.

Continuing from where I left…[Read more]

What I mean is the following. Lets take for example what you witnessed: “I saw even NZD news shaking GBPUSD around.”

What you saw is how NZD news affects GBPUSD. The ratios of the price change between NZDUSD and GBPNZD and GBPUSD should give an indication as to the “value” of NZD priced into GBPUSD. It’s difficult to explain what’s in my head..…[Read more]

What I mean is the following. For example, your example “I saw even NZD news shaking GBPUSD around.”

What you saw is how NZD news affects GBPUSD. The ratios of the price change between NZDUSD and GBPNZD and GBPUSD should give an indication as to the “value” of NZD priced into the GBPUSD. It’s difficult to explain what’s in my head.. I assume…[Read more]

Great work Simplex!

Have you thought of big news events to synchronize the currency components?

For example, when brexit happened, we saw how all the currencies reacted. I think this move showed how GBP is correlated with every other currency. I think from this, you should be able to extract a constant (that might only move so slightly) that can…[Read more]

Unfortunately I didn’t and this is because my probabilities were based on trading every single tick and it would be impossible to trade every pip. I ended up margin calling with my demo account. Had a nice run though  Also the broker I had to use was a shitty one since I live in USA and I had to choose a broker that didn’t follow…[Read more]