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This topic contains 293 replies, has 47 voices, and was last updated by despacito 1 year, 4 months ago.

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Hello everybody!
I made a blog post about TZs:
http://penguintraders.com/2014/12/11/transientrecurrentzones/I just finished writing the introduction and the basic theory. I plan to cover the theory in detail and to talk about its application in my next revision, which I will do in a few days.
I invite the TZ concept veterans to have a look and to provide suggestions and feedback. I want to make sure that I cover all the bases so that someone who is new to the concept can quickly understand it.
Also if any of you guys want to write an official blog post with some of your ideas or concepts, let me know and I can post it after reviewing it. I don’t want to be the only guy who write articles on this site
I want to actually showcase the gold that we find so that others may benefit from itFocus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
This is great. Thank you very much for your selfless and hard work to help all of us saver0
[ LearnAlways ]December 11, 2014 at 10:24 am #1127Thx Saver0. Thx for helping to clarify TZ. Subscribed.
I only know I know nothing
Skype: learnalways@outlook.comWhat a great explanation! Clean and clear.
Thank you for all your efforts Saver0!
What's it all about? It's all about money.
Hi,
thank you for your recent article, Saver0!I don’t want to open another TZ topic so I post my thoughts / question in here.
On picture below of the current EUR/USD chart we have a top and bottom pending zone.
The last confirmed TZ was a bottom so probability is in favour for a top TZ and that means bottom TZ should be cleared.My question is do we consider the pending top TZ as already been taken out since the next but one neared up to 9 pips (which is lessen than average k calculated with kprsas indicator)?
Kind regards
My question is do we consider the pending top TZ as already been taken out since the next but one neared up to 9 pips (which is lessen than average k calculated with kprsas indicator)?
I’m assuming that you understand about the role of K. I haven’t written about it yet, I plan to in a day or two.
There is no correct answer I can give you since I don’t have statistics for this setup. I don’t like to make any assumptions. TZs should be traded based on hard facts. For example, do you know the answer to these question?
1) What is the probability of having a last confirmed TZ with a bottom and then the next one being a top TZ vs being a bottom TZ again?
2) How can you “consider the top TZ” to be taken out (which by I assume you mean taking the top zone as a RZ) when the price has retraced back 9pips? If your probability calculations assume K to be 9pips, then yes, the top uncleared zone can be classified as a completed RZ. But then the bottom zone probably would be a RZ too because K=9pips is a pretty high number that would make almost all zones RZs.If you cannot answer these questions with numbers and hard facts, then its very dangerous to trade these setups because you wouldn’t know what to expect. Trades have to be taken with expectations, with a plan A, B and a C. Approaching this using mathematics and probability allows you to have this bulletproof plan that could give you an edge thats as good as the ammo you are using. Math and probability will be the only limit
You will understand more about K and how I approach probability in my next post if you don’t already
I have to take the time to write these so I will have to do it when I find more time between my development and trading. I will try my best to write more tomorrow or Saturday.Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
Sorry for the delay everybody. I completed the next section of the TZ lessons.
http://penguintraders.com/2014/12/11/transientrecurrentzones/
Please have a look and let me know if you have any questions.
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
Thanks for the new section SaverO , i really like the effort you´re putting into this.
Be sure that i´m coming back if a question arises
"A dream you dream alone is only a dream. A dream you dream together is a reality." (John Lennon)
Thankyou Saver for this log creation and also this good and clear lesson! so Great!!!!
only i found you suppose h=10 for TZ but in figures in lesson it was h=9!
sorry it maight be my wrong undertanding!!!
@arya,
H & K is the secrets of each trader, it depends on you. But normally we can use h >= 4 (we can not use h=1 for example). So, you must play with it, and find the right H & K that works for you, for each TF you are preferred trading on.
So, if you find the right H & K that works for a specified TF, that is great. KEEP IT FOR YOUR SELF ….. this is i always remember, it is the rule of Eurusdd !!
 This reply was modified 4 years, 3 months ago by dewachen.
@arya, H & K is the secrets of each trader, it depends on you. But normally we can use h >= 4 (we can not use h=1 for example). So, you must play with it, and find the right H & K that works for you, for each TF you are preferred trading on. So, if you find the right H & K that works for a specified TF, that is great. KEEP IT FOR YOUR SELF ….. this is i always remember, it is the rule of Eurusdd !!
Well, the H & K I will honestly tell you isn’t really a secret. I just don’t have exact values because my dashboard looks at all of them. I don’t use K at all, I assume K = 0 for my analysis.
The larger the H is higher the probability of a retracement back to the trend. TZ/RZs are nothing but retracements. Retracements that you can either trade back towards the trend direction (fractal RZs) or towards mid level RZs. Since the markets tend be 7080% ranging in general, TZ/RZs end up working out well. It can get a big complicated during trending or reversal type situations. This is where TZs can fail. TZs doesn’t give a direction. It gives you high probability levels. Directions part we have to figure out. It’s the more difficult thing to do. I will talk a bit more about these in my next revision
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
remember guys H & K are just the values of the length and width of the zones. H being length K being width. There is nothing particularly special about them. just like there is nothing special about any indicator. What is special is how you trade the zones plotted.
Hi Everybody,
A few days ago I started to examine resolving probabilities for different settings of h_future and h_past independently of each other. All the detail would fill up many pages, so I only state summarized results here.
To achieve these results, I examined potential midbar transient zones and potential fractal transient zones separately, for 28 major and nonmajor pairs, in timeframes ranging between one minute and daily.
Observation 1: If h_future is being treated as a constant and h_past is being varied in a reasonable range ( 0 < h_past < 100 ) then the probability of full resolving the potential transient zones is basically constant for all values of h_past, with only minimal variations from their mean respective values, lacking any clear trend.
Observation 2: If h_past is being treated as a constant and h_future is being varied in a reasonable range ( 0 < h_future < 100 ) then the probability of full resolving the potential transient zones is increasing towards 100 % for increasing values of h_future.
Conclusion 1: The probability of full resolving is basically independent of the h_past interval chosen.
Conclusion 2: The wider the h_future interval, the higher the probability of full resolving.
IMO, especially observation 2 highly correlates with common sense: the longer you’re willing to wait, the higher the probability that a chosen TP level will be hit. This rule, though, says nothing about the probability that some SL level might be hit before TP level is reached.
Observation 1 leads to the conclusion, that the value of h_past you choose does not affect your success rate if a trading strategy depends on the probability of full resolving of potential transient zones. Obviously, the smaller you choose your h_past value, the more potential transient zones you will detect.
This might not be new, but I did not find similar results in the old FF threads or here.
simplex
A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend, leaving top and bottomfishing to people on an ego trip. (Dr. Alexander Elder)
Hi Semplex,
I can also confirm and agree with your results. This is the same observation I had. Trading this with SL seems to be pretty difficult. Timing of the entries are important.
H_Past only comes into play when you consider TZs as patterns. Like having Top/Bottom/Top TZ or pTZs in a row etc. Because this would cause significantly changes in the pattern when H_Past is varied. This is the reason to have H_Left, for pattern classification. BUT even then, longer the H_Future, the higher the probability will be.
I will touch on this on my next revision
Excellent work by the way. There is a lot of stats that we can extract from something as simple as TZs
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
Thank you very much bro saver0 for the very nice explanation about TRZ.
I think if we have time, we can add the candle pattern of H_left and H_right to database. Lets say we take H=4 , so if we have a ‘Confirm’ TZ , we put it to database like : [1011][1][0010].
[1011] is the bull, bear, bull, bull candles of Left wing of the TZ
[1] is the center bar it self (it is a bull candle)
[0010] is the bear, bear, bull, bear candles of Right wing of the TZMay be later if we have the same pattern of Left wing & central bar of a PTZ, we can look at database and calculate the probability what the Right wing pattern will be (that has biggest probability of candles pattern appeared). Do not know this is useful or not …
And thanks to Saver0 & Pip for information about H&K value.
Thats a very neat idea Jacky! Definitely worth investigating. If we can somehow predict what TZs would be, then this can be highly profitable way to trade.
Also I’m thinking perhaps the fractal pattern might be more important than the bar pattern. Both of them needs to be investigated. You are thinking along the right tracks. I think the real power of TZs is with patterns. We might even be able to find 100% accurate signals
Focus, Patience, Determination & Order in chaos
Good, then may be we can try to store both information, fractals & candles inside the left & right wing of confirm TZ. So, TZ H_value here is used like ZZ in fractal arrow. They build similarity … ha..ha..
Following statistics are about the PTZ expect setup.
This setup occurs once a PTZ confirmed as true TZ (after h bars passed) and without having an opposite PTZ already formed.
What is the probability of an opposite PTZ before the TZ gets invalidated by a new PTZ in the same direction?To answer this question I coded the attached jforex strategy (dukascopy). Feel free to take/adapt/share it…
H := the usual h variable (TZ confirms after h bars)
n := n represents the number of bars after which we expect an opposite PTZ, ie. if for example h=30 and n=25 then after 25 bars from last PTZ we expect an opposite PTZ forming.
Please look at the attached image to understand how SL (failure) and TP (success) levels are handled.
I tested it on one entire year of 5min/15min/1H TF data from different pairs. Two years backtest only for EURUSD pair.Here the results:
Results (20131201 to 20141130)
==================================EURUSD
——[5min]
13:55:24 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 564. Successful setups: 388. Failed setups: 176. Success rate 68.79432624113475%[15min]
12:49:38 Analysis complete: H=8 n=8. Total setups: 1036. Successful setups: 686. Failed setups: 350. Success rate 66.21621621621621%12:45:14 Analysis complete: H=10 n=10. Total setups: 744. Successful setups: 512. Failed setups: 232. Success rate 68.81720430107528%
12:40:57 Analysis complete: H=12 n=12. Total setups: 620. Successful setups: 415. Failed setups: 205. Success rate 66.93548387096774%
12:36:22 Analysis complete: H=16 n=16. Total setups: 421. Successful setups: 279. Failed setups: 142. Success rate 66.270783847981%
11:58:01 Analysis complete: H=18 n=18. Total setups: 366. Successful setups: 247. Failed setups: 119. Success rate 67.4863387978142%
11:53:51 Analysis complete: H=20 n=20. Total setups: 331. Successful setups: 227. Failed setups: 104. Success rate 68.58006042296071%
11:49:37 Analysis complete: H=24 n=24. Total setups: 255. Successful setups: 172. Failed setups: 83. Success rate 67.45098039215686%
11:45:13 Analysis complete: H=26 n=26. Total setups: 225. Successful setups: 153. Failed setups: 72. Success rate 68.0%
11:40:45 Analysis complete: H=28 n=28. Total setups: 223. Successful setups: 157. Failed setups: 66. Success rate 70.4035874439462%
12:04:20 Analysis complete: H=28 n=25. Total setups: 257. Successful setups: 179. Failed setups: 78. Success rate 69.64980544747081%10:46:06 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 214. Successful setups: 150. Failed setups: 64. Success rate 70.09345794392523%
10:50:53 Analysis complete: H=30 n=28. Total setups: 238. Successful setups: 166. Failed setups: 72. Success rate 69.74789915966386%
10:55:12 Analysis complete: H=30 n=26. Total setups: 259. Successful setups: 178. Failed setups: 81. Success rate 68.72586872586872%
11:00:04 Analysis complete: H=30 n=24. Total setups: 293. Successful setups: 196. Failed setups: 97. Success rate 66.89419795221842%
11:04:30 Analysis complete: H=30 n=20. Total setups: 393. Successful setups: 245. Failed setups: 148. Success rate 62.34096692111959%
11:08:55 Analysis complete: H=30 n=15. Total setups: 539. Successful setups: 306. Failed setups: 233. Success rate 56.77179962894249%11:13:16 Analysis complete: H=35 n=35. Total setups: 197. Successful setups: 129. Failed setups: 68. Success rate 65.48223350253807%
11:17:42 Analysis complete: H=35 n=30. Total setups: 237. Successful setups: 154. Failed setups: 83. Success rate 64.9789029535865%11:22:24 Analysis complete: H=40 n=40. Total setups: 173. Successful setups: 112. Failed setups: 61. Success rate 64.73988439306359%
11:30:41 Analysis complete: H=45 n=45. Total setups: 164. Successful setups: 104. Failed setups: 60. Success rate 63.41463414634146%
11:36:18 Analysis complete: H=55 n=55. Total setups: 140. Successful setups: 88. Failed setups: 52. Success rate 62.857142857142854%
[1H]
13:12:12 Analysis complete: H=28 n=28. Total setups: 46. Successful setups: 29. Failed setups: 17. Success rate 63.04347826086957%12:56:25 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 39. Successful setups: 24. Failed setups: 15. Success rate 61.53846153846154%
13:01:36 Analysis complete: H=30 n=26. Total setups: 64. Successful setups: 41. Failed setups: 23. Success rate 64.0625%
13:06:48 Analysis complete: H=30 n=24. Total setups: 87. Successful setups: 54. Failed setups: 33. Success rate 62.06896551724138%GBPUSD
——[5min]
17:31:45 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 571. Successful setups: 368. Failed setups: 203. Success rate 64.44833625218914%[15min]
17:23:07 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 206. Successful setups: 144. Failed setups: 62. Success rate 69.90291262135922%[1H]
17:13:49 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 41. Successful setups: 27. Failed setups: 14. Success rate 65.85365853658537%EURGBP
——[5min]
15:30:34 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 537. Successful setups: 327. Failed setups: 210. Success rate 60.893854748603346%[15min]
15:44:02 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 194. Successful setups: 134. Failed setups: 60. Success rate 69.0721649484536%16:19:51 Analysis complete: H=24 n=24. Total setups: 241. Successful setups: 168. Failed setups: 73. Success rate 69.70954356846472%
[1H]
15:17:27 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 41. Successful setups: 26. Failed setups: 15. Success rate 63.41463414634146%AUDUSD
——[5min]
16:05:40 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 582. Successful setups: 368. Failed setups: 214. Success rate 63.230240549828174%[15min]
16:12:43 Analysis complete: H=24 n=24. Total setups: 249. Successful setups: 147. Failed setups: 102. Success rate 59.036144578313255%16:09:05 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 181. Successful setups: 101. Failed setups: 80. Success rate 55.80110497237569%
[1H]
16:02:02 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 30. Successful setups: 13. Failed setups: 17. Success rate 43.333333333333336%AUDNZD
——[5min]
17:00:26 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 492. Successful setups: 313. Failed setups: 179. Success rate 63.617886178861795%[15min]
16:50:50 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 148. Successful setups: 82. Failed setups: 66. Success rate 55.4054054054054%[1H]
17:09:02 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 39. Successful setups: 29. Failed setups: 10. Success rate 74.35897435897436%Results (20121201 to 20131130)
==================================EURUSD
——[5min]
14:15:48 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 562. Successful setups: 400. Failed setups: 162. Success rate 71.17437722419929%[15min]
14:23:12 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 223. Successful setups: 156. Failed setups: 67. Success rate 69.95515695067265%[1H]
14:40:16 Analysis complete: H=24 n=24. Total setups: 64. Successful setups: 41. Failed setups: 23. Success rate 64.0625%14:29:28 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 50. Successful setups: 29. Failed setups: 21. Success rate 57.99999999999999%
14:35:26 Analysis complete: H=40 n=40. Total setups: 36. Successful setups: 22. Failed setups: 14. Success rate 61.111111111111114%
So we have an edge for sure, especially on lower time frames.
This setup is powerful on ranges because of the great R:R potential (at least 1:1). This reply was modified 4 years, 3 months ago by Jurij.
Attachments:
You must be logged in to view attached files.Recurrence as biggest defense and weakness of the market at the same time
Following statistics are about the PTZ expect setup. This setup occurs once a PTZ confirmed as true TZ (after h bars passed) and without having an opposite PTZ already formed. What is the probability of an opposite PTZ before the TZ gets invalidated by a new PTZ in the same direction? To answer this question I coded the attached jforex strategy (dukascopy). Feel free to take/adapt/share it… H := the usual h variable (TZ confirms after h bars) n := n represents the number of bars after which we expect an opposite PTZ, ie. if for example h=30 and n=25 then after 25 bars from last PTZ we expect an opposite PTZ forming. Please look at the attached image to understand how SL (failure) and TP (success) levels are handled. I tested it on one entire year of 5min/15min/1H TF data from different pairs. Two years backtest only for EURUSD pair. Here the results: Results (20131201 to 20141130) ================================== EURUSD —— [5min] 13:55:24 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 564. Successful setups: 388. Failed setups: 176. Success rate 68.79432624113475% [15min] 12:49:38 Analysis complete: H=8 n=8. Total setups: 1036. Successful setups: 686. Failed setups: 350. Success rate 66.21621621621621% 12:45:14 Analysis complete: H=10 n=10. Total setups: 744. Successful setups: 512. Failed setups: 232. Success rate 68.81720430107528% 12:40:57 Analysis complete: H=12 n=12. Total setups: 620. Successful setups: 415. Failed setups: 205. Success rate 66.93548387096774% 12:36:22 Analysis complete: H=16 n=16. Total setups: 421. Successful setups: 279. Failed setups: 142. Success rate 66.270783847981% 11:58:01 Analysis complete: H=18 n=18. Total setups: 366. Successful setups: 247. Failed setups: 119. Success rate 67.4863387978142% 11:53:51 Analysis complete: H=20 n=20. Total setups: 331. Successful setups: 227. Failed setups: 104. Success rate 68.58006042296071% 11:49:37 Analysis complete: H=24 n=24. Total setups: 255. Successful setups: 172. Failed setups: 83. Success rate 67.45098039215686% 11:45:13 Analysis complete: H=26 n=26. Total setups: 225. Successful setups: 153. Failed setups: 72. Success rate 68.0% 11:40:45 Analysis complete: H=28 n=28. Total setups: 223. Successful setups: 157. Failed setups: 66. Success rate 70.4035874439462% 12:04:20 Analysis complete: H=28 n=25. Total setups: 257. Successful setups: 179. Failed setups: 78. Success rate 69.64980544747081% 10:46:06 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 214. Successful setups: 150. Failed setups: 64. Success rate 70.09345794392523% 10:50:53 Analysis complete: H=30 n=28. Total setups: 238. Successful setups: 166. Failed setups: 72. Success rate 69.74789915966386% 10:55:12 Analysis complete: H=30 n=26. Total setups: 259. Successful setups: 178. Failed setups: 81. Success rate 68.72586872586872% 11:00:04 Analysis complete: H=30 n=24. Total setups: 293. Successful setups: 196. Failed setups: 97. Success rate 66.89419795221842% 11:04:30 Analysis complete: H=30 n=20. Total setups: 393. Successful setups: 245. Failed setups: 148. Success rate 62.34096692111959% 11:08:55 Analysis complete: H=30 n=15. Total setups: 539. Successful setups: 306. Failed setups: 233. Success rate 56.77179962894249% 11:13:16 Analysis complete: H=35 n=35. Total setups: 197. Successful setups: 129. Failed setups: 68. Success rate 65.48223350253807% 11:17:42 Analysis complete: H=35 n=30. Total setups: 237. Successful setups: 154. Failed setups: 83. Success rate 64.9789029535865% 11:22:24 Analysis complete: H=40 n=40. Total setups: 173. Successful setups: 112. Failed setups: 61. Success rate 64.73988439306359% 11:30:41 Analysis complete: H=45 n=45. Total setups: 164. Successful setups: 104. Failed setups: 60. Success rate 63.41463414634146% 11:36:18 Analysis complete: H=55 n=55. Total setups: 140. Successful setups: 88. Failed setups: 52. Success rate 62.857142857142854% [1H] 13:12:12 Analysis complete: H=28 n=28. Total setups: 46. Successful setups: 29. Failed setups: 17. Success rate 63.04347826086957% 12:56:25 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 39. Successful setups: 24. Failed setups: 15. Success rate 61.53846153846154% 13:01:36 Analysis complete: H=30 n=26. Total setups: 64. Successful setups: 41. Failed setups: 23. Success rate 64.0625% 13:06:48 Analysis complete: H=30 n=24. Total setups: 87. Successful setups: 54. Failed setups: 33. Success rate 62.06896551724138% GBPUSD —— [5min] 17:31:45 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 571. Successful setups: 368. Failed setups: 203. Success rate 64.44833625218914% [15min] 17:23:07 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 206. Successful setups: 144. Failed setups: 62. Success rate 69.90291262135922% [1H] 17:13:49 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 41. Successful setups: 27. Failed setups: 14. Success rate 65.85365853658537% EURGBP —— [5min] 15:30:34 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 537. Successful setups: 327. Failed setups: 210. Success rate 60.893854748603346% [15min] 15:44:02 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 194. Successful setups: 134. Failed setups: 60. Success rate 69.0721649484536% 16:19:51 Analysis complete: H=24 n=24. Total setups: 241. Successful setups: 168. Failed setups: 73. Success rate 69.70954356846472% [1H] 15:17:27 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 41. Successful setups: 26. Failed setups: 15. Success rate 63.41463414634146% AUDUSD —— [5min] 16:05:40 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 582. Successful setups: 368. Failed setups: 214. Success rate 63.230240549828174% [15min] 16:12:43 Analysis complete: H=24 n=24. Total setups: 249. Successful setups: 147. Failed setups: 102. Success rate 59.036144578313255% 16:09:05 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 181. Successful setups: 101. Failed setups: 80. Success rate 55.80110497237569% [1H] 16:02:02 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 30. Successful setups: 13. Failed setups: 17. Success rate 43.333333333333336% AUDNZD —— [5min] 17:00:26 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 492. Successful setups: 313. Failed setups: 179. Success rate 63.617886178861795% [15min] 16:50:50 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 148. Successful setups: 82. Failed setups: 66. Success rate 55.4054054054054% [1H] 17:09:02 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 39. Successful setups: 29. Failed setups: 10. Success rate 74.35897435897436% Results (20121201 to 20131130) ================================== EURUSD —— [5min] 14:15:48 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 562. Successful setups: 400. Failed setups: 162. Success rate 71.17437722419929% [15min] 14:23:12 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 223. Successful setups: 156. Failed setups: 67. Success rate 69.95515695067265% [1H] 14:40:16 Analysis complete: H=24 n=24. Total setups: 64. Successful setups: 41. Failed setups: 23. Success rate 64.0625% 14:29:28 Analysis complete: H=30 n=30. Total setups: 50. Successful setups: 29. Failed setups: 21. Success rate 57.99999999999999% 14:35:26 Analysis complete: H=40 n=40. Total setups: 36. Successful setups: 22. Failed setups: 14. Success rate 61.111111111111114% So we have an edge for sure, especially on lower time frames. This setup is powerful on ranges because of the great R:R potential (at least 1:1).
`
Amazing work buddy! This is what I was talking about in my thread last night. Although 6070% is nothing like 90% it is still more than enough odds to get rich. Casinos do it with 54% odds so we an surely do it with more
Yes and the high probability FXJay style setup is a PTZ expect setup + PTZ invalidation setup + k factor after all, more probabilities stacked together.
Recurrence as biggest defense and weakness of the market at the same time
Yes and the high probability FXJay style setup is a PTZ expect setup + PTZ invalidation setup + k factor after all, more probabilities stacked together.
Yes but remember we must never compound the probabilities of the different results as we can reach 99% easily when this is not the true probabilities of our TP being taken out instead of our SL.

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