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there is a 97% chance
“I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all
your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of
money at tops and bottoms.”
– Paul Tudor JonesMaybe. However, I’ve though it would be interesting …
I would agree that the average of th market is recurrent. However, it is only possible to identify the average in hindsight. If we model all possible prize paths as recommended we have to adjust the expected value (mean) to the close of each new candle …
im going to call bullshit on the near zero perobability. point “A” has an “extremely” high probability and point “B” is nowhere near 0.
perhaps im not reading what hes saying correctly?
“I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all
your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of
money at tops and bottoms.”
– Paul Tudor Jones13 tick chart. lots of fun
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This reply was modified 1 year, 9 months ago by
Lowphat. Reason: adding images
“I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all
your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of
money at tops and bottoms.”
– Paul Tudor JonesWhy 13 Ticks?
as for 13 when i try a lower number my MT4 bugs out
. also its a good compromise between seeing enough data on my screen and having a lower than 1 min TF“I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all
your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of
money at tops and bottoms.”
– Paul Tudor JonesA video on prime numbers, markets ans recurrence
… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FxlVASqki4o What do you think about it … I think someone with a ghanaian accent who is smart enough to impress people with a bunch of sketchy, genious-sounding ideas is looking for investors once again.
I think someone with a ghanaian accent who is smart enough to impress people with a bunch of sketchy, genious-sounding ideas is looking for investors once again.
Maybe, maybe not. We even don’t know if the originator is Eurusdd.
You never know. To my mind it is quite obvious, though. Even so you can argue that he is just trying to teach something.
However, what could be the intention behind an anonoymously published video discussing some bricks of a strategy that should never be shared but proving that the author can predict the market? Welfare?
I decided to share one of my indicators which I have developed in during the study of Eurusdd’s concepts. It is pretty much the same as Ralome’s StochDiff indicator from FF. However, there are a few differences:
- It doesn’t show dissimilarity zones.
- It is designed in a way to show the relative position of prize (orchid) and stochastic (orange) charts in relation the BB period as well as the difference between both charts (white line).
- The indicator was coded in a way to show the directional deviation of stochastic and prize.
I’ve thought it would be interesting to study the directional behavior of the indicator but I didn’t come up with something useful.
Nevertheless, has some of you any idea how to use the difference readings between stoch and prize in order to determine tops and bottoms? Eurusdd mentioned that it would be possible in this post and on another post which I can’t find atm, where he said something like we have a high chance for a soon reversal whenever the differences exceeds 2). However, there is also a contradiction …
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This reply was modified 1 year, 9 months ago by
Anti.
@random33: Yes, probably not. However, it seems that many participants of the FF threads were quite successful incorporating some of the ideas Eurusdd presented in his threads. Thus, it can be worth studying it. But yes, saying that the moving average should be alway recurrent is quite dangerous for trading (like most other ideas presented in the Eurusdd Threads due to the possible DD)..
thanks to all who still putting fire in this thread especially anti
@fasttrade, @thomas: Thank you.
@thomas: I don’t know what Lowphat uses to create the 13 tick chart but you can create similar charts with every renko tool.
@fasttrade, @thomas: Thank you. @thomas: I don’t know what Lowphat uses to create the 13 tick chart but you can create similar charts with every renko tool.
Thanks Anti … i though it was tick bar like tools made by metacoder or other trader …
If you like to create a tick chart with MT4 I can recommend FlexiCharts.
For the math nerds @penguintraders.com: I think you can relate this work with the formalization of the similarity principle and the TZ theory.
For the math nerds @penguintraders.com: I think you can relate this work with the formalization of the similarity principle and the TZ theory.
Anti,
could you explain a little?
thanks
Hi meda, I still haven’t worked through and thus didn’t fully understand the whole paper, yet. However, I think that it confirms that it is possible to predict the behavior of a stochastic process under certain conditions. It even deals with revisiting times … But I have to do a lot of further readings in order to fully grasp it.
Hi Anti,
stochastic processes have their principles hidden behind the scene. I hope it is possible to predict the price movement under certain conditions, but I’m not sure :-). I wish success to your research and I hope you will share the results with us
@meda: I’ve always shared my findings … BTW at the moment I’m more focussed on my upcoming day job.
Have you formerly studied the ideas spread over the threads of Eurusdd? I think there are very outstanding ideas. However, many of those ideas don’t work in the way it has been described.
So, the theory is quite simple: As the market is almost everytimes fractal, we can expect that particular fractal properties agree between two different TFs (similarity, isomorphy, or whatever you want to call it). Whenever these properties disagree over TFs (dissimilarity) we can expect that the prize behaves in a way that similarity is restored.
Hmm, let’s assume we observe a case of dissimilarity between 2 timeframes, tf1 and tf2. Should we then further assume that tf1 adapts to tf2 behaviour or vice versa?
A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend, leaving top- and bottom-fishing to people on an ego trip. (Dr. Alexander Elder)
few spots above seem to be taking a long time to resolve
“I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all
your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of
money at tops and bottoms.”
– Paul Tudor Jones@simplex: That’s a very good question. I’m still struggling with that point. I think it depends on the dissimilarity measure. Let’s assume we could calculate something like a fractal dimension of both TFs (that are those properties I was thinking about). The assumption of similarity could include that there are typical values for these properties. In that case we may have an advantage.
But yes, only the theoretical conception in my head is quite simple. But it doesn’t mean that it is applicable, too. As written before, I believe that the dissimilarity targets of common tools only get filled due to the recurrence behavior.
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This reply was modified 1 year, 9 months ago by
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