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I was with your thought experiment up until the 3 pip stop. You opened a BUY and a SELL and confirmed that there is a 90+% probability price will deviate in one direction 3 pips within the following 24 hours. Meaning this test didnt have a stop loss for the loosing side. So of the 29,513 failed trades, how many pips did each one lose?
Yes, I see what you are talking about and you are correct. Out of the successful trades, there would be a lot that would fail if they actually had a SL. So yes, the SL wouldn’t make sense. I will need to get proper stats with an actual SL to see what it comes out to be. If we take out the spread, it should in theory come out to be 50% I think since the entry is random for both directions. I will confirm it later. Thank you for correcting it!
One tick = 2 trades, so from 400000 trades must be 200000 ticks. 200000/500 = 400 ticks per day.
You are absolutely correct IenDzi! I feel so embarrassed for posting such inaccurate results. I looked at my script and I had loaded a sample.csv file with just a month of ticks when I had a 1.5GB file with millions of ticks. I’m running the stats for that file but it’s taking a really long time. I will let it run over night and post my results later. I’m hoping the stats will remain about the same though. 200k ticks vs 200 million ticks shouldn’t make much of a difference since its all probability but I will post soon my results
8 good trades as a test, but I need work on trend and entry.
Awesome results! Keep it up. Here are my trades from this week :)
Some of them I placed from my phone without care for the lot size since it’s just for testing (I was on holiday this week ). 22 total trades and if the lot size was accurate to get 0.4% from each trade, this would have been 109% gain for just 3 days of trading
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