Simplex, …
Zelo,
I’d like to come back to your FF post that Bartleby mentioned: http://www.ff.com/showthread.php?p=7904030#post7904030
I just want to share with you guys some stats that i found from 27 pairs.
(i have triple checked my code, i hope it right 
)
Timeframe: 4H
H: 30
Broker: Dukascopy
From 2010.01.04 To 2014.11.27
It is based from my understand of FX-Jay’s idea. Seem like they supports FX-Jay.
For example:
if price go from bottom PTZ to top PTZ, price go back near bottom PTZ,
if it dont touch bottom PTZ when h expire (bottom is fully transient), then it will have very high chance of hitting top PTZ.
% of Overlap PTZ occur vs % price touch 1st PTZ vs % price touch 2nd PTZ when 1st PTZ became fully TZ
NZDCHF: 8.55% – 77.34% – 98.32%
GBPUSD: 7.20% – 75.82% – 97.82%
EURGBP: 8.16% – 77.69% – 99.04%
CADJPY: 7.79% – 79.83% – 98.32%
AUDCAD: 7.91% – 76.16% – 98.18%
EURCAD: 8.10% – 77.54% – 99.03%
NZDJPY: 7.65% – 79.62% – 98.46%
USDJPY: 6.97% – 75.56% – 97.74%
GBPNZD: 8.44% – 79.84% – 98.76%
GBPAUD: 8.06% – 78.25% – 98.21%
EURAUD: 8.34% – 80.69% – 98.90%
GBPCAD: 7.95% – 77.43% – 98.85%
AUDUSD: 8.61% – 80.09% – 98.94%
EURNZD: 8.64% – 79.09% – 98.03%
GBPJPY: 7.25% – 78.34% – 98.56%
EURUSD: 6.89% – 77.57% – 98.86%
CHFJPY: 7.74% – 76.48% – 97.63%
USDCHF: 6.77% – 76.02% – 98.65%
AUDJPY: 7.52% – 78.57% – 97.91%
NZDUSD: 7.76% – 77.07% – 98.15%
AUDNZD: 7.71% – 79.97% – 98.47%
GBPCHF: 7.82% – 78.89% – 99.33%
EURJPY: 7.36% – 78.47% – 98.75%
AUDCHF: 9.14% – 80.66% – 99.00%
CADCHF: 8.29% – 76.94% – 98.89%
USDCAD: 7.38% – 77.30% – 98.94%
EURCHF: 5.88% – 73.94% – 97.10%
I’m very interested in your results, but I believe that I didn’t get them right. So I picked up your first pair NZDCHF and tried to compile my understanding into a picture – see attachment. I just do not believe that I got it right – so could you correct my view?
In my example, after bottom PTZ was confirmed we have a remaining time for top PTZ to be confirmed: marked by the blue rectangle.
I understand your post that there is a 77 % prob. for the bottom CTZ price level to be revisited, and a 98 % prob. for the top PTZ price level to be revisited. Is this interpretation correct? And if yes, the most important question is: during which period of time should those revisits occur? Before confirming that top PTZ?
I can hardly believe that and hope that you can help me to understand your stats.
Regards, simplex
A good trader is a realist who wants to grab a chunk from the body of a trend, leaving top- and bottom-fishing to people on an ego trip. (Dr. Alexander Elder)
